For additional information, please contact:
John Bistline (jbistline@epri.com)
David Young (dyoung@epri.com)
Pathways to a 50% economy-wide emissions reduction by 2030, updated with Inflation Reductin Act incentives and increased fuel and technology costs
2023
Scenarios to evaluate alternative technology strategies for achieving economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050
2022
Net-zero electric sector scenarios considering how a traget is defined, the timing of the target, the costs of the transformation, and the interactions with the end-use sectors
2021
ESCA Reports on Decarbonization Pathways
ESCA Research Summaries
EPRI Programs & Initiatives
Resources
Primary and final energy in net-zero 2050 scenarios. Source: EPRI (2022).
Change in the net present value (NPV) of electric sector costs (including capital, fuel, operations and maintenance, transmission) under a 95% CO2 cap by 2050 relative to a “Full Portfolio” reference. Source: Bistline and Blanford (2020).
Innovations
Optionality
Target Definitions
Affordability
7 of 7
climate resilience
What are the gaps in existing climate-related data, and what variables and metrics can be effectively applied to the power system?
6 of 7
load forecasting
How can forecasts incorporate synchronized renewable/load profiles, weather-to-load dynamics, and probabilistic forecasting?
5 of 7
demand side participation
What are the economic and emissions impacts of including flexible demand and distributed resources in capacity expansion, transmission, and distribution planning?
4 of 7
electrification
How could stakeholder networks (utilities, regulators, technology vendors, market operators) coordinate to reduce barriers to electrification?
3 of 7
Reliability
How can net-zero pathways meet reliability and resiliency requirements?
2 of 7
Advanced technology
What is the technical and economic potential for advanced technology to enable decarbonization?
1 of 7
SUpply Chain
How can the existing system be maintained while expanding clean energy deployment and workforce?
Electric Company Voluntary
Inflation Reduction Act
Customers and shareholders increasingly expect companies to reduce emissions and provide options for clean energy procurement (e.g., growing interest in 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy).
Stakeholder Advocacy
Federal performance standards and regulations can alter company and household purchases and operations.
Performance Standards & Regulations
Major federal climate legislation via the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law provide incentives for clean energy investments across most segments of the energy sector, including power, buildings, industry, fuels, and transport.
Federal Policies
Renewable portfolio standards, clean electricity standards, and emissions targets at the state level are constantly being updated, adding pressure, funding, and a variety of interim targets to coordinate with on the path to long-term goals.
State Policies
Electric companies set increasingly ambitious goals while coordinating between state and federal policies and responding to increased stakeholder and procurement pressure.
Company Targets
Installed electricity generation and energy storage capacity in 2020 and 2050 across different economy-wide net-zero scenarios. Source: EPRI (2023).
Costs of renewable electricity generation and batteries in the U.S. have fallen as deployment has increased. Source: Fifth National Climate Assessment “Mitigation” chapter.
Supplying the same end-use services while using less energy
Improving
Decarbonizing the power sector
Switching from fossil fuels to electricity for transportation and heat for buildings and industry
Electrifying end uses
Including bioenergy, carbon capture, hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration storage
Accelerating the innovation/deployment of emerging technologies
Mitigation opportunities include using productive lands for agriculture, reducing food waste, shifting diets, and improved management of croplands and pasture
Reducing land-related emissions
There are many options for reducing economy-wide emissions.
Decarbonization Opportunities & Costs
Variable Renewable
Adopting Electric
Options for
2022—2023
2023
2023
2018
2014—now
2014—2016
ESCA leads multi-model studies of the U.S. 2030 climate target and Inflation Reduction Act published in Science, contributing to the U.S. government’s stocktake to measure progress toward its Paris Agreement pledge.
EPRI publishes the Integrated Strategic System Planning (ISSP) framework report for more comprehensively planning reliable, low-carbon portfolios across electric power system supply, delivery, and end-use.
ESCA coauthors the first multi-model study of reaching net-zero emissions in the U.S. (EMF 37) and publishes Low-Carbon Resources Initiative Net-Zero 2050 report.
EPRI’s U.S. National Electrification Assessment explores strategies to reduce economy-wide emissions using cleaner electricity. A 2021 report, Canadian National Electrification Assessment, examines decarbonization opportunities in Canada.
ESCA experts participate as authors of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) for chapters on economics, adaptation, supply chains, energy, and mitigation.
ESCA conducts analysis of EPA’s Clean Power Plan using US-REGEN to understand policy impacts in detail at the state level.
2010s
2010s
2010s
2010s
2009—2011
2007—2009
2001
1999
1998
1997—2001
Development and application of international versions of EPRI’s REGEN model in Canada, European Union, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, and Taiwan.
ESCA leads research on GHG offsets and emissions accounting.
ESCA’s social cost of carbon (SCC) research advances relevant sciences and educates stakeholders on technical issues for SCC estimation and use, including participation on the National Academies SCC Committee.
ESCA leads several prominent studies and model comparison projects on renewables and energy storage modeling for deep decarbonization.
ESCA’s Prism/MERGE analysis helps further the U.S. dialog on carbon reductions as Congress considers legislation, providing a roadmap for electricity sector decarbonization.
Started EPRI-IEA-IETA Workshop on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading.
ESCA, Stanford, and Resources for the Future organize a workshop that leads to the seminal book Discounting and Intergenerational Equity (RFF).
ESCA and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory start the Global Energy Technology Strategy project to highlight the critical role of technology advances in addressing the climate change.
Analyses of the Kyoto Protocol using EPRI’s MERGE model contributes to domestic policy discussions
and international negotiations.
EPRI establishes Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University to improve the accuracy and capabilities of energy-economic models and to apply them to investigate decision-relevant questions.
1992
1996—2005
1996
1996
1992—now
1992
1992
1992
1991
1976
ESCA starts collaborative Vegetation-Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) with NASA, USDA Forest Service, and U.S. Department of Energy to simulate and understand ecosystem dynamics.
ESCA initiates one of the largest programs on climate impacts in the world, identifying the importance of considering adaptation options when assessing climate impacts, which leads to the publication of three books on national and regional climate impacts.
ESCA convenes its first Energy and Climate Research Seminar.
ESCA coauthors study in Nature “Economic and Environmental Choices in the Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations,” which is a seminal paper in climate policy design.
ESCA experts serve as authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with 12 authors in various roles beginning in the Second Assessment Report.
ESCA participates in the first multi-model study of global climate change mitigation (EMF 12).
ESCA contributes seed funding to create the climate research programs at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Carnegie Mellon University, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
ESCA and Stanford coauthors collaborate in Buying Greenhouse Insurance (MIT Press). This book explores the fundamental challenges of greenhouse gas reductions.
ESCA leads international consortia (MECCA and ACACIA) with industry, government, and academia to improve global climate simulation models and quantify uncertainties in regional climate forecasts.
2014—present
1997—2010s
1976—1996
ESCA HISTORY
Energy Systems and Climate Analysis (ESCA) Decarbonization Research
Resources
Balancing Objectives
Challenges
Drivers
Decarbonization 101
Decarbonization Trends
ESCA HISTORY
EPRI
Optionality enables affordability
Target definitions impact costs and technology mixes.
Many low-emitting electricity generation, energy storage, transmission, and demand-side options can decarbonize power systems
Many electric companies have announced voluntary CO2 reduction targets, including goals to reach net-zero emissions from their generating units.
Economic impacts across different electric sector CO2 reduction targets (% 2005 levels) and assumptions about carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability. Panels show incremental policy costs and CO2 allowance prices. “RPS Only” limits the choice set of eligible technologies to renewables and energy storage only. “Breakthrough” scenarios assume lower technological costs. Source: Bistline and Blanford (2021).
Decarbonization opportunities and costs vary significantly between global regions and within the U.S.
EPRI’s Energy Systems and Climate Analysis (ESCA) group and its predecessors have been conducting climate change and decarbonization research for nearly five decades, publishing many seminal peer-reviewed journal articles, reports, and books during this time.
There are many pathways to reach net-zero emissions; some are lower cost than others.
There are several objectives that decision-makers are trying to balance in the clean energy transition, including affordability, sustainability, reliability, resiliency, and equity.
Recent EPRI-led analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) indicates that it can roughly double the economy-wide emissions reductions and clean electricity generation over the next decade.
Variable renewable energy—especially land-based wind and photovoltaic solar generation—is expected to play a large role in decarbonizing electricity systems, given dropping costs and growing policy support.
Electrification—adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives—is a pillar of decarbonization pathways.